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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.