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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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