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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."